What do we know about the Conservative Party leadership election? [First Round]

This information in this is correct as of 17:00, 13/06/2018. As the first round has already taken place, this blog post won’t be updated — although the figures might be, so if the text doesn’t fully match the graph, that’s why!

If you’re interested in reading an academic journal article I’ve written about the 2016 Conservative leadership election, click here!

The contest to be the next leader of the Conservative Party — and hence the next prime minister — has begun.

10 candidates managed to clear the first hurdle of submitting nomination forms with the backing of 8 MPs. They are favourite Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid, Matt Hancock, Mark Harper, Rory Stewart, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom.

The first round saw three of those candidates eliminated since they failed to reach the 5% support threshold (16 ballots). They are Andrea Leadsom, Mark Harper, and Esther McVey.

This blog will outline the geographic, social, and ideological splits in support as it currently stands, drawing on the Guido Fawkes data.

The Field

We’ll start with a brief overview of the field, as it stands. I’ve assumed that candidates would support…